Bank of Canada Holds Rates Again - What It Means for Borrowers
The Bank of Canada held its benchmark interest rate steady at 2.25% today, a decision that was widely expected.
The Canadian economy showed some weakness heading into 2026 but the biggest wildcard is the war in the Middle East. Rising global oil and gas prices are expected to push inflation back up in the coming months, and disruptions to shipping through the Strait of Hormuz could ripple across commodity markets.
In short, the economy is slowing, but inflation pressures from energy prices are pulling in the opposite direction - making it harder for the Bank to cut rates even if growth softens.
What This Means for Mortgage Borrowers: Variable rate mortgage holders will see no change to their payments today. Fixed rates, however, are influenced by bond markets - and with global bond yields rising and credit spreads widening, fixed rates could face some upward pressure in the near term.
If you are like me, and you like to look at numbers, here is a table summarizing the Prime Rate changes in Canada from 2010 to today:
| Effective Date | Prime Rate | Change |
|---|---|---|
March 18, 2026 | 4.45% | 0.00% |
Jan 28, 2026 | 4.45% | 0.00% |
Dec 10, 2025 | 4.45% | 0.00% |
Oct 29, 2025 | 4.45% | -0.25% |
Sept 17, 2025 | 4.70% | -0.25% |
July 30, 2025 | 4.95% | 0.00% |
June 04, 2025 | 4.95% | 0.00% |
April 16th, 2025 | 4.95% | 0.00% |
| March 12th, 2025 | 4.95% | -0.25% |
| Jan 29th, 2025 | 5.25% | -0.25% |
| Dec 11th, 2025 | 5.45% | -0.50% |
| October 23, 2024 | 5.95% | -0.50% |
| Sept 4, 2024 | 6.45% | -0.25% |
| July 24, 2024 | 6.70% | -0.25% |
| June 5, 2024 | 6.95% | -0.25% |
| July 12, 2023 | 7.20% | +0.25% |
| June 8, 2023 | 6.95% | +0.25% |
| January 25, 2023 | 6.70% | +0.25% |
December 8, 2022 | 6.45% | +0.50% |
| October 27, 2022 | 5.95% | +0.50% |
| September 8, 2022 | 5.45% | +0.75% |
| July 14, 2022 | 4.70% | +1.00% |
June 2, 2022 | 3.70% | +0.50% |
April 14, 2022 | 3.20% | +0.50% |
| March 3, 2022 | 2.70% | +0.50% |
| March 30, 2020 | 2.45% | -0.50% |
| March 17, 2020 | 2.95% | -0.50% |
| March 5, 2020 | 3.45% | -0.50% |
October 25, 2018 | 3.95% | +0.25% |
| July 12, 2018 | 3.70% | +0.25% |
| January 18, 2018 | 3.45% | +0.25% |
| September 7, 2017 | 3.20% | +0.25% |
| July 13, 2017 | 2.95% | +0.25% |
| July 16, 2015 | 2.70% | -0.15% |
| January 28, 2015 | 2.85% | -0.15% |
| September 9, 2010 | 3.00% | +0.25% |
| July 21, 2010 | 2.75% | +0.25% |
| June 2, 2010 | 2.50% | +0.25% |
Where Does the Bank Go Next?
The next rate announcement is April 29th. If inflation stays elevated due to energy prices, the Bank will likely hold again.
If the economy weakens more than expected and inflation stays contained, a cut becomes possible - but the Middle East conflict adds a layer of uncertainty that makes any prediction difficult right now.
Borrowers in renewal or purchase conversations should plan for a "hold steady" environment for at least the next one to two rate decisions.
Need help understanding how this affects your mortgage?
Let’s connect for a quick chat — I’ll walk you through what this decision means for your specific situation.
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